Do the asset pricing factors predict future economy growth? An Australian study
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper we examine whether past returns of the market portfolio (MKT), the size portfolio (SMB), the book-to-market portfolio (HML) and the idiosyncratic volatility portfolio (HIMLI) can predict growth rates of ten major Australian economic indicators from 1993 to 2010. We find that all four factors can be used to predict growth rates in Australian economic indicators. We also find high returns of SMB and HML portfolios precede periods of good states of the macro economy, although high returns of HIMLI portfolio precede periods of bad states of the macro economy. JEL Classification: G11; G12; G15
منابع مشابه
Investigating the effect of herd behavior in the Iranian economy on the efficiency criteria of the asset pricing model
The capital asset pricing model provides an equilibrium model to show the relationship between risk and return on assets. One of the economic areas is herd behavior, which has attracted a lot of attention in recent decades. Therefore, the present study deals with the herd behavior in the Iranian economy on the efficiency criteria of the asset pricing model. The research method used in this rese...
متن کاملPricing of Commodity Futures Contract by Using of Spot Price Jump-Diffusion Process
Futures contract is one of the most important derivatives that is used in financial markets in all over the world to buy or sell an asset or commodity in the future. Pricing of this tool depends on expected price of asset or commodity at the maturity date. According to this, theoretical futures pricing models try to find this expected price in order to use in the futures contract. So in this ar...
متن کاملMoney Growth Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy with an informal sector
This paper is concerned with the saddle-path stability of monetary growth rules in a two-country two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Alongside standard features of emerging economies, such as a combination of producer and local currency pricing for exports, fiscal dominance and oil exports, this model also incorporates informal labour and production sectors and examines how...
متن کاملOptimizing Financial Asset Pricing Using Quantitative Behavioral Bias Measurement
Optimization of pricing financial assets less an emerging discipline that attempts to model the impact of biases that investors in asset prices. This article provides an overview of the theoretical foundations and challenges and offers some solutions in this field. The paper is divided into two parts. In the first part of the paper, an overview of the selected literature is presented on key the...
متن کاملHigher moments portfolio Optimization with unequal weights based on Generalized Capital Asset pricing model with independent and identically asymmetric Power Distribution
The main criterion in investment decisions is to maximize the investors utility. Traditional capital asset pricing models cannot be used when asset returns do not follow a normal distribution. For this reason, we use capital asset pricing model with independent and identically asymmetric power distributed (CAPM-IIAPD) and capital asset pricing model with asymmetric independent and identically a...
متن کامل